Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF
Saturday 10 October at 20:00 BST
The model favours Real Madrid CF at 63%, a 2–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 68%.
About this forecast
Automatically generated summary of the free website model. It is not a report of team news or a separately verified expert assessment.
Current forecast generated: . Recorded before the listed kick-off.
Model version: website-poisson-2026-09-v1. League fitting sample: 449 matches (not this team's last matches).
Data source: football-data.org. Injuries, lineups and weather are not inputs to the website model.
Read the methodology and limitations and full recorded results, including losses.
Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF: model estimates & correct score
Our statistical model makes Real Madrid CF the favourite, giving them a 63% chance of a home win, in this Primera Division fixture. That's a strong lean by the model's standards.
The single most likely exact score is 2–1. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 68%, pointing towards an open, higher-scoring game.
These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They are estimates, not measured success rates: at 63%, the model assigns the other outcomes 37% combined. Actual outcomes can differ from these estimates.
Related paid software. This free forecast and its results do not demonstrate the performance of the product below.
Specialises in half-time/full-time outcomes: how matches swing across both halves.
- ✓Half-time / Full-time
- ✓Correct score
- ✓Goals
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