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Public record · Updated daily at 03:00 UTC

Every pick we publish, graded.

A complete log of every free prediction posted on this site. Each one is graded automatically against the final score after full time. Entries are never edited or removed, wins or losses.

216 picks graded · 0 entries modified since publication

Does the model know its own odds?

Calibration is the honest test of a probability model. We group every graded pick by the confidence the model stated at publication, then compare it with how often those picks actually won. The closer the two bars, the more you can trust the number next to a pick.

Picks stated at 40 to 50%50 picks
Model said
44.3%
Actually won
34.0%
Gap: 10.3 points below stated. Slightly overconfident in this band.
Picks stated at 50 to 60%104 picks
Model said
54.5%
Actually won
49.0%
Gap: 5.4 points below stated. Slightly overconfident in this band.
Picks stated at 60% and above48 picks
Model said
65.3%
Actually won
64.6%
Gap: 0.8 points below stated. Well calibrated in this band.
Picks graded, all time
216
104 won · 112 lost
Strike rate, all time
48.1%
voids excluded
Last 30 days
49.1%
53 won · 55 lost
Avg model probability
53.5%
across all graded picks

These are a factual record of past published predictions. They are not a forecast of future results, and probabilities lose. 18+.

The full log

Newest first. Void means the match was postponed or abandoned; void picks are excluded from strike rates.

DateFixtureMarketPickModelScoreResult
11 Sept 26Sevilla FC v Valencia CFPrimera Division1X2Home win51%1–0won
11 Sept 26Sevilla FC v Valencia CFPrimera DivisionOver/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1–0lost
11 Sept 26Venezia FC v ACF FiorentinaSerie A1X2Away win38%2–4won
11 Sept 26Venezia FC v ACF FiorentinaSerie AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.553%2–4lost
11 Sept 26Stade Rennais FC 1901 v Olympique de MarseilleLigue 11X2Home win45%1–0won
11 Sept 26Stade Rennais FC 1901 v Olympique de MarseilleLigue 1Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1–0lost
11 Sept 261. FC Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04BundesligaOver/Under 2.5Under 2.554%1–3lost
11 Sept 261. FC Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04Bundesliga1X2Home win40%1–3lost
08 Sept 26EC Vitória v Grêmio FBPACampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Home win39%1–0won
08 Sept 26EC Vitória v Grêmio FBPACampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.561%1–0won
06 Sept 26SC Corinthians Paulista v Chapecoense AFCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Home win68%1–2lost
06 Sept 26SC Corinthians Paulista v Chapecoense AFCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1–2won
06 Sept 26Botafogo FR v SE PalmeirasCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Away win39%0–0lost
06 Sept 26Botafogo FR v SE PalmeirasCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.551%0–0won
06 Sept 26Cruzeiro EC v CA ParanaenseCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Home win44%3–1won
06 Sept 26SC Internacional v Santos FCCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Home win46%2–3lost
06 Sept 26SC Internacional v Santos FCCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.553%2–3lost
06 Sept 26Clube do Remo v CR FlamengoCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Away win62%0–1won
06 Sept 26Clube do Remo v CR FlamengoCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.559%0–1lost
06 Sept 26Cruzeiro EC v CA ParanaenseCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.560%3–1lost
06 Sept 26Arsenal FC v Chelsea FCPremier League1X2Home win63%2–1won
06 Sept 26Arsenal FC v Chelsea FCPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Over 2.551%2–1won
06 Sept 26Coritiba FBC v Mirassol FCCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Home win46%1–2lost
06 Sept 26Coritiba FBC v Mirassol FCCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1–2won
06 Sept 26Everton FC v Manchester United FCPremier League1X2Away win37%2–2lost
06 Sept 26Everton FC v Manchester United FCPremier LeagueOver/Under 2.5Under 2.555%2–2lost
06 Sept 26Fluminense FC v CR Vasco da GamaCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Home win61%1–0won
06 Sept 26Fluminense FC v CR Vasco da GamaCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1–0lost
05 Sept 26São Paulo FC v CA MineiroCampeonato Brasileiro Série A1X2Home win44%2–0won
05 Sept 26São Paulo FC v CA MineiroCampeonato Brasileiro Série AOver/Under 2.5Under 2.560%2–0won
Showing the 30 most recently settled picks

How grading works

  1. Published before kick-off. Every pick is written to the database with its fixture, market and model probability at the moment it appears on the free predictions page.
  2. Graded by machine, not by hand. A scheduled job runs daily at 03:00 UTC, pulls final scores from our licensed data feed and marks each pick won, lost or void. No human touches the outcome.
  3. Locked after publication. Rows cannot be edited or deleted once published. Losing picks stay on the record permanently.

Strike rates on this page are a factual record of published predictions, not a promise of future results. The model outputs probabilities, and probabilities lose. These are probabilities to guide your own decisions. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. begambleaware.org