Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club
Saturday 10 October at 13:00 BST
The model favours Rayo Vallecano de Madrid at 48%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 46%.
About this forecast
Automatically generated summary of the free website model. It is not a report of team news or a separately verified expert assessment.
Current forecast generated: . Recorded before the listed kick-off.
Model version: website-poisson-2026-09-v1. League fitting sample: 449 matches (not this team's last matches).
Data source: football-data.org. Injuries, lineups and weather are not inputs to the website model.
Read the methodology and limitations and full recorded results, including losses.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club: model estimates & correct score
Our statistical model makes Rayo Vallecano de Madrid the favourite, giving them a 48% chance of a home win, in this Primera Division fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.
The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 46%, with goals roughly a coin-toss.
These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They are estimates, not measured success rates: at 48%, the model assigns the other outcomes 52% combined. Actual outcomes can differ from these estimates.
Related paid software. This free forecast and its results do not demonstrate the performance of the product below.
Covers several markets in one tool: 1X2, corners, BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals.
- ✓1X2
- ✓Corners
- ✓BTTS
Predictions are statistical probabilities, not guarantees. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · begambleaware.org