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Ligue 1

FC Lorient vs Toulouse FC

Saturday 12 September at 18:45

The model favours FC Lorient at 44%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 47%.

Most likelyMiddleLeast likely
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Most likely score
1–1

FC Lorient vs Toulouse FC: prediction, odds & correct score

Our statistical model makes FC Lorient the favourite, giving them a 44% chance of a home win, in this Ligue 1 fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.

The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 47%, with goals roughly a coin-toss.

These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They're probabilities, not certainties: even at 44%, the other outcomes still come in around 56% of the time.

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