Deportivo Alavés vs Club Atlético de Madrid
Saturday 10 October at 15:15 BST
The model favours Club Atlético de Madrid at 38%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 52%.
About this forecast
Automatically generated summary of the free website model. It is not a report of team news or a separately verified expert assessment.
Current forecast generated: . Recorded before the listed kick-off.
Model version: website-poisson-2026-09-v1. League fitting sample: 449 matches (not this team's last matches).
Data source: football-data.org. Injuries, lineups and weather are not inputs to the website model.
Read the methodology and limitations and full recorded results, including losses.
Deportivo Alavés vs Club Atlético de Madrid: model estimates & correct score
Our statistical model makes Club Atlético de Madrid the favourite, giving them a 38% chance of an away win, in this Primera Division fixture. No single outcome reaches 40% in the model; the remaining probability is split between the other two outcomes.
The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 52%, with goals roughly a coin-toss.
These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They are estimates, not measured success rates: at 38%, the model assigns the other outcomes 62% combined. Actual outcomes can differ from these estimates.
Related paid software. This free forecast and its results do not demonstrate the performance of the product below.
Data-driven forecasts tuned for the top European leagues: correct score, goals, result and BTTS.
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