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Campeonato Brasileiro Série A

Chapecoense AF vs São Paulo FC

Sunday 23 August at 21:30

The model favours São Paulo FC at 47%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 54%.

Most likelyMiddleLeast likely
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Most likely score
1–1

Chapecoense AF vs São Paulo FC: prediction, odds & correct score

Our statistical model makes São Paulo FC the favourite, giving them a 47% chance of an away win, in this Campeonato Brasileiro Série A fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.

The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 54%, with goals roughly a coin-toss.

These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They're probabilities, not certainties: even at 47%, the other outcomes still come in around 53% of the time.

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