1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Saturday 10 October at 14:30 BST
The model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 40%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 61%.
About this forecast
Automatically generated summary of the free website model. It is not a report of team news or a separately verified expert assessment.
Current forecast generated: . Recorded before the listed kick-off.
Model version: website-poisson-2026-09-v1. League fitting sample: 342 matches (not this team's last matches).
Data source: football-data.org. Injuries, lineups and weather are not inputs to the website model.
Read the methodology and limitations and full recorded results, including losses.
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: model estimates & correct score
Our statistical model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen the favourite, giving them a 40% chance of an away win, in this Bundesliga fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.
The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 61%, pointing towards an open, higher-scoring game.
These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They are estimates, not measured success rates: at 40%, the model assigns the other outcomes 60% combined. Actual outcomes can differ from these estimates.
Related paid software. This free forecast and its results do not demonstrate the performance of the product below.
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