How to Read a Correct Score Probability Table (Fenerbahce vs Lyon Example)

Fenerbahce hosted Lyon in pre-season, and the correct score model had it down as one of the closer calls on the card. It's a good example to walk through, because the top-ranked score wasn't the final result, and that's exactly the kind of thing this table is built to show you.

What the model output looked like

Before kickoff, the model's score matrix ranked three lines for the match:

• Score 1: 2-1 (highest-rated)
• Score 2: 1-1
• Score 3: 2-2

Alongside that, the goals table gave Over 0.5 at 97.4%, Over 1.5 at 88.4%, Over 2.5 at 71.6%, and Under 3.5 at 49.1%.

Reading it correctly

A correct score table is not a single guess. It's a ranked list of the most probable scorelines, each with its own weight. Here, 2-1 was rated the single most likely outcome, but 1-1 sat close behind it as the second-most-likely line, not a long shot.

The final result was 1-1, Fenerbahce's second-ranked score. That's the point of publishing more than one line: when the top pick doesn't land, the next-most-probable outcome very often does, because the model is describing a spread of realistic outcomes, not making one bet on a single number.

The goals table told the same story from a different angle. Over 1.5 at 88.4% was pointing at a game with goals in it, and both sides scoring inside a 1-1 line fits that read exactly.

Why this matters when you use correct score software

Three things worth taking from this, whichever tool you use:

1. Treat the full ranked list as the output, not just line one. The second or third line carries real weight, it's not a fallback.
2. Cross-check the correct score lines against the goals markets. If they tell the same story, that's a more consistent signal than either on its own.
3. A model getting its second-ranked line right is the model working as intended. Ranking probabilities correctly, not calling every match exactly, is what a well-built statistical model is actually for.

Our correct-score prediction software outputs this same ranked format, updated automatically for each day's fixtures, so you're reading a probability table like this one rather than a single unexplained pick.

If you want to see how these calls have played out over time, including the misses, our track record page publishes every graded prediction.

Predictions are model-generated probabilities based on statistical analysis of team form and historical data. They are not guarantees and should not be treated as certainties. 18+. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free, confidential help is available at begambleaware.org.