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Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

Saturday 19 September at 16:30

The model favours Borussia Dortmund at 39%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 65%.

Most likelyMiddleLeast likely
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Most likely score
1–1

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction, odds & correct score

Our statistical model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite, giving them a 39% chance of an away win, in this Bundesliga fixture. It's a genuinely open match: no outcome clears 40%, so this is close to a coin-toss with only a slight lean.

The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 65%, pointing towards an open, higher-scoring game.

These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They're probabilities, not certainties: even at 39%, the other outcomes still come in around 61% of the time.

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