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Serie A

SS Lazio vs AC Milan

Saturday 12 September at 16:00

The model favours AC Milan at 38%, a 0–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 34%.

Most likelyMiddleLeast likely
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Most likely score
0–1

SS Lazio vs AC Milan: prediction, odds & correct score

Our statistical model makes AC Milan the favourite, giving them a 38% chance of an away win, in this Serie A fixture. It's a genuinely open match: no outcome clears 40%, so this is close to a coin-toss with only a slight lean.

The single most likely exact score is 0–1. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 34%, leaning towards a lower-scoring, cagey affair.

These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They're probabilities, not certainties: even at 38%, the other outcomes still come in around 62% of the time.

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