Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC
Sunday 13 September at 15:30
The model favours Manchester City FC at 42%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 62%.
Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC: prediction, odds & correct score
Our statistical model makes Manchester City FC the favourite, giving them a 42% chance of an away win, in this Premier League fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.
The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 62%, pointing towards an open, higher-scoring game.
These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They're probabilities, not certainties: even at 42%, the other outcomes still come in around 58% of the time.
Estimates the most likely exact scorelines for upcoming matches, ranked by probability.
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Predictions are statistical probabilities, not guarantees. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · begambleaware.org