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Primera Division

Club Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid CF

Sunday 20 September at 14:15

The model favours Real Madrid CF at 41%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 55%.

Most likelyMiddleLeast likely
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Most likely score
1–1

Club Atlético de Madrid vs Real Madrid CF: prediction, odds & correct score

Our statistical model makes Real Madrid CF the favourite, giving them a 41% chance of an away win, in this Primera Division fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.

The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 55%, pointing towards an open, higher-scoring game.

These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They're probabilities, not certainties: even at 41%, the other outcomes still come in around 59% of the time.

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