Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC
Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 12:30 GMT
The model favours Chelsea FC at 43%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 67%.
About this forecast
Automatically generated summary of the free website model. It is not a report of team news or a separately verified expert assessment.
Current forecast generated: . Recorded before the listed kick-off.
Model version: website-poisson-2026-09-v1. League fitting sample: 450 matches (not this team's last matches).
Data source: football-data.org. Injuries, lineups and weather are not inputs to the website model.
Read the methodology and limitations.
Chelsea FC vs Manchester United FC: model estimates & correct score
Our statistical model makes Chelsea FC the favourite, giving them a 43% chance of a home win, in this Premier League fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.
The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 67%, pointing towards an open, higher-scoring game.
These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They are estimates, not measured success rates: at 43%, the model assigns the other outcomes 57% combined. Actual outcomes can differ from these estimates.
Related paid software. This free forecast and its results do not demonstrate the performance of the product below.
Estimates the most likely exact scorelines for upcoming matches, ranked by probability.
- ✓Correct score
- ✓Goals
- ✓1X2
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