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Bundesliga

1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

Friday 11 September at 18:30

The model favours 1. FC Union Berlin at 40%, a 1–1 scoreline is most likely, over 2.5 goals is rated at 46%.

Most likelyMiddleLeast likely
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Most likely score
1–1

1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04: prediction, odds & correct score

Our statistical model makes 1. FC Union Berlin the favourite, giving them a 40% chance of a home win, in this Bundesliga fixture. They're favoured, but this is far from a one-sided call.

The single most likely exact score is 1–1, a reminder that tight, low-margin games are common even when one side is on top. The model rates the chance of over 2.5 goals at 46%, with goals roughly a coin-toss.

These figures come from a model that rates each team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting recent form more heavily than older matches. They're probabilities, not certainties: even at 40%, the other outcomes still come in around 60% of the time.

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