22 July 2026

Besiktas vs Midtjylland Prediction: Europa League Qualifying Preview

Besiktas host FC Midtjylland at the Tüpraş Stadyumu in Istanbul on Thursday 23 July 2026, kick-off 19:00 BST (18:00 UTC). It's the first leg of their UEFA Europa League 2026/27 qualifying tie, with the return leg in Herning, Denmark a week later.

Here's what our AI prediction model makes of the first leg.

Quick prediction: the model leans toward a Midtjylland win, rates both teams to score as highly likely (86.07%), and sees a high-scoring game as more likely than not.

The Numbers Behind the Prediction

The model rates Midtjylland's away form well above Besiktas's home form. Besiktas have scored 7 and conceded 3 in the matches feeding the model (Home Success Rate 2.73). Midtjylland have scored 25 and conceded 15 in theirs (Away Success Rate 4.04).

Match Winner Prediction Outcome Model Probability Besiktas win 23.22% Draw 13.90% Midtjylland win 59.84%

Midtjylland are rated more than double as likely to win this leg as Besiktas, despite playing away from home.

Goals Markets Market Model Probability Over 0.5 goals ~100% Over 1.5 goals ~99% Over 2.5 goals ~96% Over 3.5 goals ~90% Over 4.5 goals ~81% Both teams to score (Yes) 86.07% Team Scoring Probabilities Besiktas to score: 93.80% (fail to score: 6.20%) Besiktas to score 2+: 75.6% Midtjylland to score: 98.25% (fail to score: 1.75%) Midtjylland to score 2+: 91.11%

Midtjylland are rated a 98.25% chance to score and 91.11% to score twice. Besiktas remain strong favourites to score at home too, at 93.80%, though less likely to add a second (75.6%).

Our Take

Putting it together, the model leans toward a Midtjylland win in this first leg, with goals likely at both ends and Over 2.5 rated more likely than not. Besiktas's home support gives them a real chance, and they're still strongly rated to score, just less likely to match Midtjylland's output. These are model-generated probabilities based on statistical inputs, not a guaranteed result, and qualifying ties like this one can turn on a single moment.

Want more model-based previews like this? Browse the full range of AI football prediction tools on the site.

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These predictions are AI-generated probabilities based on statistical data, not guarantees. If you bet, please do so responsibly. 18+. begambleaware.org