Hacken vs Kalmar Prediction: 1 Aug 2026 Probabilities
Model probabilities for Hacken vs Kalmar in the Allsvenskan on 1 August 2026: 1X2, over/under goals, both teams to score and correct score outputs. 18+
Hacken vs Kalmar Prediction: Model Probabilities for 1 August 2026
Hacken host Kalmar at the Nordic Wellness Arena in Gothenburg on Saturday 1 August 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. This is round 15 of the Allsvenskan. Below are the probabilities our football prediction software calculates for the fixture across the match result, goals markets, both teams to score and correct score.
Every figure here is a model output built from goal expectation data. These are probabilities, not statements about what will happen.
Match details
| Fixture | Hacken vs Kalmar |
| Competition | Allsvenskan, round 15 |
| Date | Saturday 1 August 2026 |
| Kick-off | 14:00 UK, 15:00 CEST |
| Venue | Nordic Wellness Arena, Gothenburg |
The starting point: goal expectations
Two numbers drive everything else. The model expects Hacken to score around 3.38 goals and Kalmar to score around 1.26 goals, a combined match expectation of roughly 4.64 goals.
These come from home and away splits rather than overall form, which matters here. Hacken's home record feeding the model is 14 goals scored and 13 conceded. Kalmar's away record is 2 scored and 15 conceded.
That Kalmar away line is the single biggest driver of the numbers on this page. A team scoring twice and conceding fifteen on the road produces a very large expectation gap, and it is why Hacken's figure sits above three.
It is worth being clear about what that means. When one input is this extreme, the model's output is extreme too, and small samples produce extreme inputs more often than large ones. A team's away record can turn quickly. The model has no way of registering that.
Match result probabilities
| Outcome | Model probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hacken win | 76.60% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 12.24% | 8.17 |
| Kalmar win | 10.32% | 9.69 |
This is worth sitting with rather than taking at face value. The model is working from goal data alone, and head to head history runs the other way: Kalmar have won the majority of the recent meetings between these sides, including the last one. The model does not know that. If you weight recent fixtures between two specific teams, you would expect a flatter distribution than the one above.
Over and under goals
With a combined expectation of 4.64 goals, the over lines carry high probabilities up to a point:
| Line | Ratio in the sheet | Implied probability | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.01 | 99.0% | OK |
| Over 1.5 | 1.06 | 94.3% | OK |
| Over 2.5 | 1.19 | 84.0% | OK |
| Over 3.5 | 1.47 | 68.0% | OK |
| Over 4.5 | 2.02 | 49.5% | NO |
The software marks the first four as clearing its threshold and flags Over 4.5 as not clearing it. That line lands within a fraction of an even split, which is precisely where a model stops telling you anything useful.
Both teams to score
The model puts both teams to score at 67.70%, fair odds around 1.48.
| Market | Model probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hacken to score | 96.58% | 1.04 |
| Hacken to fail to score | 3.42% | 29.23 |
| Kalmar to score | 72.39% | 1.38 |
| Kalmar to fail to score | 27.61% | 3.62 |
Team goal totals
| Market | Model probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hacken 2 or more goals | 85.00% | 1.18 |
| Kalmar 2 or more goals | 36.05% | 2.77 |
Most likely correct scores
Derived from the same two goal expectations rather than read off the software display. Correct score is the hardest market in football and no single line here reaches 8%:
| Scoreline | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Hacken 3-1 | 7.8% |
| Hacken 2-1 | 7.0% |
| Hacken 4-1 | 6.6% |
| Hacken 3-0 | 6.2% |
| Hacken 2-0 | 5.5% |
| Hacken 4-0 | 5.3% |
| Hacken 3-2 | 4.9% |
| Hacken 5-1 | 4.5% |
Those eight scorelines together account for around 48% of the total probability. More than half the outcome space sits outside the table.
What the model does not see
This section matters more than usual for this fixture, because the goal data and the context point in different directions.
The model reads goals scored and conceded, splits them home and away, and calculates every market from the resulting expectations. It does not read team news, and Hacken have absences to contend with. It does not read head to head history, and Kalmar have the better recent record in this fixture. It does not know that Kalmar's away numbers were built partly against stronger opposition than Hacken.
Three general limits also apply:
- Extreme inputs produce extreme outputs. A 2 goals scored, 15 conceded away record pushes the numbers harder than a settled sample would.
- A 76% probability means the outcome is expected to fail roughly one time in four. That is not a small number.
- The model treats each team's scoring as independent. Real matches are not independent, because a team two goals up plays differently.
These are model probabilities, not forecasts of guaranteed results. We publish the reasoning so you can judge it for yourself.
Frequently asked questions
What does the model make Hacken vs Kalmar?
The model gives Hacken a 76.60% probability of winning, a 12.24% probability of a draw and a 10.32% probability of a Kalmar win. Head to head history runs against that, with Kalmar winning most of the recent meetings, and the model does not account for it.
How many goals does the model expect?
Around 4.64 in total, split as 3.38 for Hacken and 1.26 for Kalmar. Over 2.5 goals comes out at about 84%.
Will both teams score?
The model puts both teams to score at 67.70%, which implies the outcome fails around one time in three.
What is the most likely scoreline?
Hacken 3-1, at roughly 7.8%, with Hacken 2-1 just behind at 7.0%. No correct score carries a high probability in any football match.
When is Hacken vs Kalmar played?
Saturday 1 August 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time at the Nordic Wellness Arena in Gothenburg.
Get the software
The probabilities on this page come from our Excel-based football prediction tools, which produce the same outputs for any fixture you enter. Browse the range in the store, or read more model breakdowns in our news section.
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