Basel vs Lausanne: Checking Goals and Result Probabilities
A review of Basel–Lausanne probability totals, BTTS consistency and the distinction between illustrative calculations and verified product forecasts.
The archived Basel–Lausanne article gave a detailed probability table but did not establish the original dated workbook output. This review explains where the numbers require correction.
Start with the complete result market
Basel win was quoted at 70.46%, draw at 14.43% and Lausanne win at 14.52%. Together they total 99.41%, leaving 0.59 percentage points unexplained.
Three exhaustive outcomes should sum to approximately 100%. The gap exceeds what rounding three values to two decimals would ordinarily explain. A truncated calculation is one possible cause, but it cannot be asserted without the source.
Check BTTS against team scoring
The published team-scoring probabilities were 95.71% for Basel and 76.97% for Lausanne. Those imply that BTTS must be at least 72.68% if all values refer to the same period and events.
The article instead quoted BTTS at 72.12%. That is below the mathematical lower bound. Slight-looking decimal differences can expose a real consistency problem, even when they do not prove its cause.
Separate inputs from demonstrated output
The article quoted goal rates of 3.15 and 1.45, a total of 4.60. An independent Poisson calculation can use those assumptions to produce a score distribution. It cannot validate the rates, identify the paid product's algorithm or prove the distribution was saved before kickoff.
The previous correct-score list was described as derived rather than read from the software. We have removed its presentation as a product-performance example.
What a goals table can tell you
Within a valid distribution, over 3.5 cannot be more likely than over 2.5, because every four-goal match also has at least three goals. Over and under at the same half-goal threshold should be complements.
A value close to 50% still communicates a near-even estimate. It does not become useless simply because neither outcome has a strong majority.
Use the software demonstrations to establish exact features and support to clarify field meanings. The free website results belong to a separate model and do not resolve these archived discrepancies.
Correction, 19 September 2026: Flagged the 99.41% result total and BTTS inconsistency, removed unsupported product-method and team-context claims, and corrected the dismissal of near-50% estimates.
Revised with AI assistance using the available article evidence. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees. 18+. Support for gambling-related harm.